RISE596 made a comeback
Montenegro
Our samples from Montenegro (Fig. S 33) are mainly from the Late Bronze Age (Velika Gruda) and such individuals possess the three main components of European ancestry of Anatolian Neolithic (~50%), Eastern European hunter-gatherer (~12%), and Balkan hunter-gatherer ancestry (~18%). One later individual of the Iron Age (MNE_IA; I13170) differs by having reduced Neolithic ancestry (-21±7% relative to the rest). Whether this individual represents an outlier of the later population or signifies a real change in population ancestry in
the intervening period between the end of the 2 nd millennium and the 1 st millennium BCE remains to be determined.
Unfortunately again radiocarbon date is not available:
I13170 MNE_IA F 800-400 BCE RISE596-I13170 are duplicates X1'2'3
Comments
The sample appears to me to potentially be very early and very rich in the Balto-Slavic drift - https://imgur.com/a/6LzNK3T & https://imgur.com/a/NkRwd5j , even if not necessarily directly ancestral to anyone.
(as far as I remember, you predicted this would be a very rich hotspot from Gerber/Nagy's work.)
I think this is the earliest and pushes back the earliest centre of this drift. He's quite similar to a Hungarian Iron age sample ~1600 years later.
Also another question:
The paper's supplement states: "Bosnia-Herzegovina: Only a single individual of unknown date but probably prehistoric (3000-1BCE) was sampled from Bosnia Herzegovina (I19561) so we only list it admixture proportions which are estimated to be: 0.343 ± 0.043 CHG 0.179 ± 0.041 EHG -0.008 ± 0.006 Levant_PPN 0.127 ± 0.022 SRB_Iron_Gates_HG 0.358 ± 0.031 TUR_Marmara_Barcın_N. Its ancestry and placement in the Balkan cluster in the previous section suggests that it may be of Bronze Age or later date as other members of that cluster." He also has I2a1b1a2a1.
This sample is very close to present-day Poles and Ukrainians (https://imgur.com/a/hbA5z6A). This may influence the estimates of its date?
Target: SRB_Iron_Gates_MBA:I5243
Distance: 1.2154% / 0.01215351
41.0 Baltic_LVA_BA
16.4 ROU_C_o
12.2 DEU_LBK_KD
8.4 HUN_MBA_Vatya_o
5.2 ROU_Iron_Gates_N
4.8 Bell_Beaker_England_mediumEEF_low_res
4.2 POL_BKG_N_o2
3.8 HUN_Koros_N_HG
2.2 Levant_Yehud_IBA
1.0 PER_LaGalgada_4100BP
0.6 DEU_Meso_TGM
0.2 KEN_Pastoral_N_o
Distance to: SRB_Iron_Gates_MBA:I5243
0.02791613 HUN_EIA_Prescythian_Mezocsat_o1
0.04990232 HUN_Mako_EBA_o
0.05878756 HUN_IA_La_Tene_o3
0.06067044 HRV_Jag_MBA
0.06132126 HUN_EIA_o3
0.06535418 DEU_Tollense_BA
0.06680219 VK2020_POL_Sandomierz_VA
0.06728698 DEU_MA_Krakauer_Berg
0.06851560 VK2020_POL_Bodzia_VA
0.07005358 HUN_LBA_Halva
0.07039567 HUN_Avar_Szolad
0.07230256 VK2020_SWE_Gotland_VA
0.07288398 Baltic_EST_IA
0.07331687 HUN_MBA_Vatya_o
0.07347122 VK2020_POL_Cedynia_VA
0.07408508 UKR_Dereivka_I_En2
0.07433908 RUS_Sunghir_MA
0.07510653 VK2020_RUS_Pskov_VA
0.07512398 KAZ_Golden_Horde_Euro
0.07563541 Baltic_EST_MA
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2022/01/para-turbo-balto-slavic.html
On this topic one of the interesting papers recently on the Iron Gates mesolithic->neolithic foraging groups was (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.28.498048v1.full), because it showed that the Iron Gates ancestry group tended to maintain the same burial practices and did not move into the villages (in contrast to the idea that Lepenski Vir represented an early form of settled foragers reliant on fishing who built houses and used the same burial groups).
The paper for GB1 has this to say about her burial - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982217305596 - "The individual from Gura Baciului included in this study (laboratory ID: GB1_Eneo) comes from grave no. 1 (archaeological ID: M1). This grave was a chance find when the section of an older trench collapsed. Discovered in 1962 near a pit-house, it is a primary inhumation of a single individual (GB1_Eneo) in anatomical connection, deposited in the crouched position on the left side, with ESE–WNW orientation (head to east). The reported grave goods comprise ten flint flakes in the feet area and a bone awl and two ochre fragments in the cheek and hip areas. Eighty-three fragments of animal bones (of Bos taurus, Ovis aries/Capra hircus, Cervus elaphus, Bos primigenius), mollusca, broken stones and numerous ceramic fragments supposedly formed a “bed” underneath the body [55, 56, 57, 58]. Among this material were three “loose” human bones of an 11–13 year old child [56]. The skeleton from grave no. 1 is that of an adult female, around 155 cm tall [50, 56]. The AMS 14C date of 4,621 ± 28 yBP (5,456–5,299 cal BP, MAMS-28614, this study) (Table S1) places this burial in the Eneolithic period, and is further evidence of the post-abandonment use of the Starčevo culture settlement as a formal burial area. The δ15N value of +12.7‰ implies the individual had a high trophic level diet that may have included significant amounts of fish, which in turn would likely result in a 14C age that is older than the archaeological context (i.e., that includes a reservoir offset). Thus, the 14C date should be regarded as a maximum age for this individual. The Eneolithic period date for burial no. 1 is not entirely surprising, since in early survey work in the Gura Baciului locality (prior to 1942 — items from a private collection donated to the museum in 1942), traces of Eneolithic and EBA activity were recorded"
(part 1)
Then the burial context for I5243: "Padina–Gospođin Vir (Middle Bronze Age, Iron Gates) - Padina–Gospođin Vir is situated on the right back of the Danube in Serbia, in the area of the Danube Gorges ... Three connected coves marked as sectors I (675 m2), II (650 m2), and III (1100 m2) were investigated in the zone below 70 m asl, which was subsequently submerged beneath the reservoir created by the Iron Gates I dam. While the uncovered features at this site are largely dated to the Mesolithic and Early Neolithic, there were also Copper Age, Bronze Age, and Iron Age finds (403, 404). Burial 30, found at Sector II (block 1b, 2b), close to the surface in the layer of recent humus, was excavated on 11/07/1970. This is an articulated inhumation placed on its lateral left side in a flexed position. Physical anthropology analyses of the human remains suggested a possible female sex although genetic analyses confirmed a male sex of this individual. The individual is of old adult age. Lower right M2 (F2157, tooth 47) was used for genetic analyses reported here. Enamel from the same tooth was used for strontium isotope analysis, with the results suggesting local place of birth and early life for this individual (405). It has directly been AMS-dated to the Early Bronze Age (PSU-2379: 3885±20 BP, calibrated 2460–2296 calBCE at 95% confidence). Stable isotope analyses on the postcranial remains of this individual exhibit the values of δ13C= –21.5 ‰ and δ15N=12.1 ‰ (Borić and Price 2012) while stable isotope analyses obtained on AMS burns from the dated tooth specimen are by and large consistent with these values: δ13C= –21.0‰ and δ15N=12.8 ‰. Based on the δ15N value of 12.8 ‰, there is a possibility that this individual consumed freshwater fish protein in moderate quantities and that the obtained radiocarbon measurement needs to be corrected due to the intake of “old carbon.” We corrected this date using 545±70 as the end point of a 100% freshwater diet and calculating then the percentage based on the δ15N=12.8‰ (54% freshwater diet). The corrected date is 3591±58 BP, calibrated 2136–1767 calBCE at 95% confidence. Future 34S isotope analyses on this specimen would be able to better characterize the fish protein contribution in the diet of this individual and would thus enable a better estimate of the individual’s chronological age."
(Note, maybe I5243 is younger than the date I extracted from the file? But still EBA)
Were there these people, late descendants of the foragers, in the region around the Danube river system that until at least the EBA had settled on a modus vivendi with the farmers that they would dominate the freshwater resources? Did they later expand to the north, after fusions with the post-Corded Ware populations, and give rise to Latvian and Lithuanian LBA populations? We know that this region saw population replacements of farming and pastoral people by people who used foraging more, due to the marginal and difficult agriculture - e.g. Finnish/Saami - so it doesn't seem impossible that a population with a high reliance on freshwater foraging from the south could also make a similar replacement earlier in time.
(Judging by the gracile morphology of GB1 and I5243, these people if they existed were not necessarily some big, huge, very well nourished people, but had enough food resources through fishing and domesticated animals to thrive in a large enough population to make an impact?).
Samples that are found buried away from the agricultural cemetaries, and/or that show high contributions of fish to the diet, should be a priority to understand and map the persistence of forager ancestry in the region (the Danube river system, including its extension into the Carpathian Mountains, and the Dinaric and Balkan Mountains), and potentially find some explanations for the "Balto-Slavic drift". Particularly this is the case in the time period before the expansion of steppe ancestry, which could prove this continuity.
Thanks for all your comments, both the new ones and those from a few months ago.
Re: BIH
Newly radiocarbon dated Hungarian La Tene samples have the same or even smaller distances:
Distance to: HUN_IA_La_Tene_o:I18226
0.02066294 Russian_Pskov
0.02355747 Russian_Tver
0.02398007 Russian_Kursk
0.02439635 Russian_Kaluga
0.02458742 Russian_Ryazan
Distance to: HUN_IA_La_Tene_o:I18183
0.02571778 Polish
0.02786730 Sorb_Niederlausitz
0.02871717 Ukrainian_Rivne
0.02984511 Ukrainian_Zhytomyr
0.03021985 Ukrainian_Lviv
Distance to: BIH_unknown:I19561
0.02659677 Ukrainian_Lviv
0.03156252 Ukrainian_Sumy
0.03244140 Polish
0.03361287 Ukrainian_Zhytomyr
0.03427194 Russian_Orel
So everything is possible.
TBH, that wasn't a prediction.
Were there these people, late descendants of the foragers, in the region around the Danube river system that until at least the EBA had settled on a modus vivendi with the farmers that they would dominate the freshwater resources?
Supposedly this is how the Pannonian Basin looked until recently:
https://i.redd.it/c8q37rxscda41.jpg
Hard to imagine a better place for a survival of hunter-fishers.
"I believe we also have the earliest "Slavic-related" I2a - L621 in Monteoru culture, eastern Romania
not carbon dated, but doesnt seem to be outlier. Monteoru seems to be I2a dominated, but has a G2a and R1a-CTS1211 there"
Arza, can you say more about these samples? Especially the CTS1211 would be interesting.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05247-2