Second I-CTS10228 and R1b-P312 in a Slavic-like sample from the Bezdanjača Cave, Croatia
The first was published in Patterson et al. 2021. Now we have another one. Unfortunately still without any dating other than archaeological.
I18719 BzV 10a 1500-800 BCE Croatia_MLBA_alt Bezdanjača Cave I2a1a2b1a1 HV0a1a
A petrous bone from one of the individuals (BzV 10a) excavated from the eastern channel yielded sample I18719 (male). This mature adult displayed possible peri-mortem trauma. Unfortunately, only the left side of the cranium is preserved.
I18721 BzV 11a 1500-800 BCE HRV_Bezdanjača_BA Bezdanjača Cave I2a1a2b1a1 T2b11
I18721/3781, BzV 11a (petrous bone), genetically male. Complete neurocranium of an adult individual. Healed porotic hyperostosis on the frontal, parietal and the occipital bones, perimortem blunt force trauma on the right parietal bone.
Wormian bones along the lambdoid suture.
Interestingly there's another Slavic-like individual. This time with R1b-P312.
I18723 Blok 9/1; 1088 1500-800 BCE HRV_Bezdanjača_BA Bezdanjača Cave R1b1a1b1a1a2 V1a1
Comments
Unfortunately, the sample was not directly carbon dated, and, naturally, it raised some doubts regarding the actual age of the finding. However, the haplogroup result itself is unarguable and it clearly signifies that the members of the clan which “produced” all known and unknown I-Y3120 sub-clades had indeed inhabited western Balkan. And, that is what is important here."
http://www.genealogywise.com/profiles/blogs/haplogroup-i2a1-l621-cts10228-y3120
Re: HV0a1a1b
According to Yfull HV0a didn't mutate for over 16000 years:
HV0a C15904T formed >20000 ybp, TMRCA 4300 ybp
https://www.yfull.com/mtree/HV0a/
Then we have:
HV0a1 C10196T * T16126C formed 4300 ybp, TMRCA 2100 ybp
HV0a1a A200G * T3200C * G16346C formed 2100 ybp, TMRCA 850 ybp
HV0a1a1 T10084C formed 850 ybp, TMRCA 550 ybp
HV0a1a1b A16235G formed 550 ybp, TMRCA 275 ybp
1 mutation per 16000 years
1 mutation per 1100 years
1 mutation per 417 years
1 mutation per 300 years
1 mutation per 275 years
Do I have to say that such dating looks unrealistic?
7 mutations occurred after the HV0a. If we assume TMRCA of HV0a to be >20000ybp and a constant mutation rate, HV0a1a1b can be easily as old, as 20000 / 7 = 2857 ybp.
Certainly they've got a good dose of Balto-Slavic shift in the Vahaduo N Europe PCA, but don't seem to have an excessive WHG proportion: https://imgur.com/a/JVEwtkg
Agree not really clear at all to anyone if they're misdated or a precocious example of a common blend. There doesn't seem like any way to know at the moment. Perhaps if we get some definite medieval Slavic speaking people from the region and there is some specific IBD work they could do, indicating a population size expansion, and then these 3 match the same profile. Reich Lab seem to think they've got a method to reliably identify pop size expansions from ancient dna - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.03.501074v1.full.pdf - so there is some potential.
There's no such sample.
https://i.imgur.com/falAR9D.png
You need to always check everything by yourself. It's not that hard really. It's just a matter of copying and pasting a few lines of text.